Dallas · America/Chicago

Tue 4pm Brief

Jarrett Woods · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Tue 4pm Brief 10/20 · official CMT 5.12% Tue Oct 20 (-3 bp vs 5.15%) · Tue 10/20 CMT posted · live 10y ~5.111% (not CMT) · ~79° / high 80° · NWS alerts: Air Quality Alert · Waypoint noon Tue folded · NO FLIP · 6 new item(s) · 3 newly slipping vs published 6am fold

Tue Oct 20, 2026 Last updated Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 4:31 PM CT
Live page clock: America/Chicago
10-Year Treasury · official CMT
5.12%
-3 bp

Last official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve row is Tue Oct 20 (Tue Oct 20 row posted — new official row since the published Tue noon brief): 10 Yr 5.12%; 2 Yr 4.79%; 5 Yr 4.94%; 20 Yr 5.47%; 30 Yr 5.42%. Prior official 2026-10-19 was 5.15%. Day change -3 bp. Move vs published 5.15% (10/19): -3 bp — not material. Dash-side FC indicative ~6.71% (CMT + 159 bp) — indicative ≠ lock. Afternoon: Treasuries gave back early gains but stayed firmer (RTTNews: 10y −2.1 bp to 5.115% after a session low of 5.073%); Tradeweb 3 p.m. ET close 10y 5.116%, −0.019, snapping a two-day rise (Dow Jones Data Talk). CME FedWatch 85% odds of a hold at the Oct 27–28 FOMC (CNBC). Census September (7:30 AM CT): housing starts 1.221M SAAR, −5.2% vs revised Aug 1.288M (consensus ~1.30M); permits 1.400M, −0.2%; 5+ unit starts 349K; 5+ unit permits 503K. Rest of week: $13B 20-year auction Wed; jobless claims + $26B 5-year TIPS Thu; flash PMI Fri. CNBC Tradeweb (NOT CMT; live) at 2026-10-20 4:05 PM CT: 10y 5.111% (-0.025 vs prev close 5.136%); 2y 4.78% (+0.019); 30y 5.422% (-0.051).

Primary: Treasury.gov daily par yield curve (October 2026) · Live (not official CMT): CNBC Tradeweb 10y 5.111%

Dallas, TX · NWS Fort Worth
79°

Clear at Love Field · humidity 28% · wind NE 7 mph (HI 78)

Today high / tonight
80° / 55°

Sunny

Tue
80°
55° · sunny
Wed
80°
59° · sunny
Thu
83°
62° · sunny
Fri
84°
60° · sunny

Observed KDAL 4:10 PM CDT (79° / Clear / humidity 28% / NE 7 mph; HI 78) — latest KDAL observation (api.weather.gov). Grid FWD/89,104. Today high near 80 (Sunny; PoP 0%); morning low 55 (from the 6am hourly); tonight ~55; heat index as high as —. Heat Advisory ABSENT. Extreme Heat Warning ABSENT. Severe Thunderstorm Watch/Warning ABSENT. Flood ABSENT. Ozone/Air Quality PRESENT. Air Quality Alert ACTIVE (Air Quality Alert issued October 20 at 3:19PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX; The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has issued an Ozone Action Day for the Dallas-Fort Worth area for Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Active at this 4pm Tue fetch; not on the Tue noon brief — newly issued; ozone / air-quality product, not heat / severe / flood). weather.gov / NWS Fort Worth · KDAL obs

AI headlines

Multifamily real estate

Waypoint · noon Tue 10/20 (cutoff 12:35 PM CT; board ingested 12:35 PM CT) · after 6am Tue · Snapshot for Dash — not a live vault write

Waypoint · noon Tue 10/20

Biggest work this week

  1. Forest Cove (≠ The Cove) — lock / signature status: Legacy NTE 6.59% — lock ❓ unknown (⚠️ day 5; no Legacy / Colin mail since 10/15 — status unknown, not “not locked”). Updated Financing Commitment (to Jan 2027, subject to HUD) — Chad’s signature ❌ not evidenced. ⚠️ Colin’s items still owed before the Thu 10/22 2:00 Prelim Closing call. Final VE list → Cross Fri 10/23 (Intervest resubmittal Nov 6). 🆕 City of Ennis site plan (OpenGov 10:31 AM): “when can we expect the city’s approval?” — approval not evidenced. ⚠️ AOS transformers open. Davis Craig 145740 / 146985: payment said to be sent — receipt ≠ confirmed. ⚠️ CONFLICT (side by side, carried): Colin cites an “original signed, executed” 7/27 commitment with “no further extension beyond 11/12”; Jarrett’s guidance (and the Drive copy marked “Original, Unsigned – Superseded by 7.24”): Legacy commitment never signed, no 10/15 or 11/12 hard stop, lock ~Nov 2–3, package ~Nov 7, HUD Firm 12/26. Dash-side FC indicative is in the yield card — indicative ≠ lock.
  2. Natura (Treebecka Park Apartments II): ⚠️ CBA S&S sprinkler letter → clubhouse CO overdue. CLOMR: City floodplain manager “actively reviewing … very very soon,” then NV5 submits to FEMA (≠ submitted). 🆕 NV5 final HUD / ALTA survey ~10/30. 🆕 ⚠️ SignJive invoice 5984 (garage building ID signage) 70 days past due (amount not in snippet). 🆕 ⚠️ Parcel Pending: $18,437.50 paid by ACH (Draw 28) vs re-issued invoice $19,481.25; $800 PoE switch in dispute — decide credit vs add to final draw. Pref table · Karf wire · radon doc · trash corral still open. Murbeck Wed 10/21 3:00.
  3. Mockingbird: Firm App Wed 10/21 1:30; ⚠️ HUD 2328 from NE ❌. 🆕 Coordination meeting (Read AI): 90% design submission materials due to JHP Wilson Nov 19 (coordination through Nov 20). Hunt Neurohr asked for the Davis Craig contact.
  4. Oak Hill (TOH): clubhouse core findings due Wed 10/21. 🆕 ⚠️ Bldg 2 slab (cast 9/18, 3,500 psi design): NW 3,380 psi and SW 3,430 psi below design at 28 days (north-central 4,980); 56-day cylinders 11/13. Bldg 1 slab reports 1–3 OK; 56-day 11/10. ⚠️ Dev Fee Invoice #5 (OH-KD-05 $10,413.86, sent 10/19) not paid. Draw 5 in prep (≠ submitted); Nations Pay App #4 ❌ (Pay App #4 feeds Draw 5).
  5. HUD concept prep: Mustang on 10th Tue 10/27 1:30 (HUD invite now in; ⚠️ GC ❌ not named) and 🆕 3980 McDonald Wed 10/28 1:30 (HUD SW Concepts notice 9:18 AM; package to SWConcepts@hud.gov) — back to back.
  6. Southton: FPRG (M. Sierra) narrative: 87.9% occupied (FPRG 10/19), projecting ~89.5% by end of Oct, ~86% if November holds; confirm BS / T12 as of 9/30 are covered for Savoy Q3. AJE-1 decision for Isauro ❌ (Wed 11:30). Travelers ❓.
  7. Summit (Alvarado = SAWC): NSPIRE 64 per Sunridge (appeal ≠ filed); Lenart report ❌; Thu 10/22 3:00. 3980 McDonald: draft Development MOU with Max — draft ≠ signed.

Deadlines · Tue 10/20 → 12/26

⚠️ ASAP
Confirm FC lock status (NTE 6.59%); Chad signs updated commitment — Forest Cove. Lock unknown, day 5.
⚠️ CONFLICT
11/12 per Colin’s “executed 7/27” commitment vs Jarrett’s never-signed / no hard stop — side by side; NOT shown as a Dash hard deadline.
⚠️ overdue
CBA S&S sprinkler letter → Natura clubhouse CO.
⚠️ open
Natura: City floodplain review → NV5 submits CLOMR to FEMA (≠ submitted).
🆕 ⚠️ ASAP
Natura: SignJive inv 5984 — 70 days past due (pay or route).
🆕 open
Natura: Parcel Pending $19,481.25 vs $18,437.50 paid; rule on the $800 switch.
⚠️ ASAP
Natura: pref table · Karf wire · radon doc · trash corral decision.
Tue 10/20
1:00 / 2:00
Whitehall vs Amarillo – Drew TIRZ (overlap) · FC A&E weekly — as of the 12:35 PM cutoff.
Wed 10/21
TOH clubhouse core findings · Isauro 11:30 (AJE-1) · Elmendorf 1:00 · Mockingbird Firm App 1:30 (⚠️ NE 2328) · Natura by Murbeck 3:00.
Thu 10/22
“Jarrett” 10:00 (6002 Palo Pinto Ave; purpose not stated) · FC Preliminary Closing Call 2:00 (Colin’s items before) · Summit 3:00.
Fri 10/23
Final VE list → Cross (Forest Cove) · Parkside Flats huddle 1:00.
⚠️ open
TOH Dev Fee Invoice #5 ($10,413.86) unpaid — chase KnakeDodge · TOH Draw 5 / Pay App #4 (in prep ≠ submitted).
⚠️ open
Name the GC for the HUD concept meeting — Mustang on 10th.
open
Southton Savoy Q3 (BS / T12 as of 9/30) · AJE-1 · Summit Lenart report · Davis Craig receipt · Hunt wants the Davis Craig contact.
Tue 10/27
Mustang on 10th HUD concept meeting 1:30 · Galaxy pricing on Parkside Flats.
🆕 Wed 10/28
3980 McDonald HUD concept meeting 1:30 (Teams; package to SWConcepts@hud.gov).
🆕 ~10/30
Natura: NV5 final HUD / ALTA survey.
~Nov 2–3
Expected FC rate lock (not evidenced). Intervest resubmittal Nov 6 · closing package ~Nov 7.
11/7
William Cannon firm expires.
🆕 11/10 · 11/13
TOH 56-day breaks: Bldg 1 · Bldg 2 (NW / SW below spec at 28 days).
Mid-Nov
Natura — ~$85k/mo fees.
🆕 Nov 19
Mockingbird: 90% design submission materials to JHP Wilson (coordination → 11/20).
~11/27
Summit NSPIRE review / appeal.
Sat 12/26
Forest Cove HUD Firm Commitment expires.

Projects · official track (noon Tue OS)

Forest Cove — Lock ❓ unknown (NTE 6.59%). Updated commitment unsigned in evidence. Executed-vs-unsigned conflict carried side by side; Dash keeps Jarrett’s never-signed / no 10/15 or 11/12 hard stop / lock ~Nov 2–3 / package ~Nov 7 / HUD Firm 12/26. Colin’s items before Thu 2:00. VE list Fri. City site-plan approval pending. Davis Craig receipt unconfirmed. Forest Cove ≠ The Cove.
Oak Hill (Tyler, TOH) — Core findings Wed. 🆕 Bldg 2 NW / SW slab below spec at 28 days (56-day 11/13). Dev Fee #5 unpaid (sent ≠ funded). Draw 5 in prep (≠ submitted). Pay App #3 → Draw 4; Pay App #4 → Draw 5. Oak Hill ≠ Oak Hull ≠ 3980 McDonald.
3980 McDonald — 🆕 HUD concept meeting Wed 10/28 1:30 (HUD notice = evidence the HUD submission happened; the board closes its “MCD to HUD” item on this — closed by evidence, not a flip). Draft Development MOU with Max (≠ signed). Kept separate from Oak Hill / TOH.
Natura (Treebecka Park Apartments II) — CBA letter overdue. CLOMR at City (≠ submitted). ALTA ~10/30. 🆕 SignJive 70 days past due. 🆕 Parcel Pending $800 dispute. Pref / Karf / radon / trash corral open. Murbeck Wed 3:00. Occupancy, kept separate (never merged): CMC 10/18 34.29% occ / 35.03% leased | CMC 10/12 33.33% / 35.35% | Sarah Franco “~100 occupied.” Entity-name source conflict carried by the OS board — open; Dash label stays Treebecka Park Apartments II.
Summit at Walnut Creek (SAWC / Alvarado) — NSPIRE 64 per Sunridge (appeal ≠ filed). Lenart report owed. Thu 3:00.
Southton family — FPRG 87.9% occupied (10/19). Savoy Q3 (BS / T12 9/30) to confirm. Travelers ❓. AJE-1 owed. Elmendorf Wed 1:00.
Mockingbird Corner — Wed 1:30 Firm App; ⚠️ HUD 2328 from NE ❌; 🆕 90% submission Nov 19.
Mustang on 10th · Amarillo D4 — HUD concept 10/27 1:30 (invite in); GC ❌. Drew / TIRZ call today (Adam, 3LB). Jennings MOU points ❌.
Parkside Flats — New model versions on Drive (Base Case; Improved Firm Appraisal; 2.15 rents + appraisal inc.). Galaxy 10/27; huddle Fri 1:00.
The Cove (Corpus) — Berkadia appraisal not evidenced. The Cove ≠ Forest Cove.
Other / pipeline — Whitehall today 1:00. Pensacola $30,000 EM refund: probable (statement match ❌). William Cannon 11/7. Vault: 10/19 and 10/20 packs APPLIED; current through 10/20 ~8:20 AM CT. Laptop ONLINE ~12:35 PM CT. ShareFile sign-in still unconfirmed; QuickBooks password no change. Not a live vault write.

Source: Waypoint OS noon Tue 10/20 (dash-2026-10-20-1200.md; evidence cutoff 12:35 PM CT; Gmail through 12:19 PM CT; board file landed 12:35 PM CT, after the noon Dash build; change window Tue 6:08 AM → 12:35 PM CT; baseline dash-2026-10-20-0600.md). Snapshot for Dash — not a live vault write. Dash reads the OS board, not the vault. Not a live vault write. NO FLIP vs the 6am Tue board · 🆕 3980 McDonald HUD concept meeting Wed 10/28 1:30 · 🆕 Mockingbird 90% submission Nov 19 · 🆕 Natura ALTA survey ~10/30 · 🆕 TOH 56-day breaks 11/10 / 11/13 · 🆕⚠️ Natura SignJive 70 days past due · 🆕⚠️ Parcel Pending $800 dispute · ⚠️ TOH Dev Fee #5 now on the slipping list (unpaid) · 🆕 TOH Bldg 2 slab NW / SW below design at 28 days · MCD HUD send now evidenced (closed by evidence, not a flip). Still not flips: FC lock; Chad signature; TOH core results; TOH Draw 5 (in prep ≠ submitted); TOH Dev Fee #5 (sent ≠ funded); 3980 McDonald MOU (draft ≠ executed); CLOMR (≠ submitted); FC site plan (approval ≠); Natura clubhouse CO; Davis Craig receipt. Flip rule: only funded, rate locked, final CO, awarded, or signed / fully executed with evidence counts. Nations Pay App #N feeds borrower Draw N+1 (TOH Pay App #3 → Draw 4; Pay App #4 → Draw 5). Identity: Forest Cove ≠ The Cove; Oak Hill (TOH, Tyler) ≠ Oak Hull ≠ 3980 McDonald; Natura = Treebecka Park Apartments II; Alvarado = SAWC; CMC and BoxScore kept separate; occupancy figures never merged. Dash keeps Jarrett’s guidance (Legacy commitment never signed; no 10/15 or 11/12 hard stop; lock ~Nov 2–3; package ~Nov 7; HUD Firm 12/26) while showing Colin’s 7/27 “executed” / 11/12 claim side by side — reconcile with Legacy.